Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) June 97W.INVEST Here comes another invest. This one takes the place of 96W. --'CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 19:50, June 1, 2012 (UTC) :: Gone.Cyclone10 18:13, June 5, 2012 (UTC) 98W.INVEST And another one. This one looks better than 97W, but dang this is really close to the equator. It must be like something on the order of 3-4 degrees north or something. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 19:50, June 1, 2012 (UTC) Broke up and dissipated. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:46, June 3, 2012 (UTC) 99W.INVEST Unorganized area of shower activity east of the Philippines designated as an INVEST. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 17:18, June 6, 2012 (UTC) : Out. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:28, June 7, 2012 (UTC) 05W.GUCHOL 90W.INVEST New invest.--Cyclone10 20:58, June 7, 2012 (UTC) :Wow this invest looks really good. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 21:47, June 7, 2012 (UTC) :Probably our next name storm.Allanjeffs 00:16, June 8, 2012 (UTC) ::GFS develops a weak and (rather small) system that will move to the NW towards Guam. ECMWF doesn't really do anything with this. GEM has... it looks like something. It is interesting to point out that this system is at a very low latitude. Anyone have the JMA model data? Darren23[[User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center|'CWC']] 01:15, June 8, 2012 (UTC) :::I don't have JMA model data (only found one for CONUS) but I do want to point out that 90W continues to impress with good outflow. --'CobraStrike '(t)(b)( ) 19:10, June 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::TCFA :D Cyclone10 20:59, June 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::Looks like this system wants to be Guchol and it looks poise to do it.I think this could be another typhoon in our hands.Allanjeffs 21:04, June 8, 2012 (UTC) :::::TCFA cancelled downgrade to medium.Allanjeffs 00:07, June 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::its upgrade into td 5w base on the JTWC and its expect to be a typhoon.Allanjeffs 01:59, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 05W Finally upgraded. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 02:19, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Here comes Guchol...Ryan1000'' 16:41, June 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Guchol (Butchoy) Not yet, but soon.--Cyclone10 02:47, June 12, 2012 (UTC) : Yep its Guchol, looks good. Too bad the Guam radar can't see Guchol. '''CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 14:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC) : Looks really good on satellite imagery. AndrewTalk To Me 16:16, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::: I expect Guchol to become a minimal typhoon in the next 2-3 days before it runs into a sh!tload of shear and collapses 5-6 days from now. Ryan1000 18:20, June 12, 2012 (UTC) ::: This is the best tropical storm I have ever seen in my life it looks like a strengthening category 1 hurricane to me.Allanjeffs 02:42, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Guchol Only JTWC says it, JMA has Guchol as a STS.--Cyclone10 15:50, June 14, 2012 (UTC) Finally!!! JTWC and JMA are really conservative organizations.Allanjeffs 18:01, June 14, 2012 (UTC) I'm mistaken on this one. It looks like it could survive the shear from the front to it's north and easily become a cat 3. Not looking likely to die out so fast. Ryan1000 04:56, June 15, 2012 (UTC) And it looks like Japan will be its target folks in there should start tracking this system.Allanjeffs 06:37, June 15, 2012 (UTC) ::Yeah, it's on a strengthening run and could get very strong before it reaches Japan. Japan needs to watch out for this one. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:02, June 15, 2012 (UTC) ::Now a Category 2 typhoon. AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, June 15, 2012 (UTC) ::::Now a cat 3. Long run forecast takes this up to cat 4, possibly even cat 5, and weakening to a cat two or one before making landfall near Tokyo (don't worry, they're a well prepared city for typhoons). Ryan1000 03:06, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::With 110 mph (3-min) winds (or 140 mph 1-min) and a 950 mb pressure, Guchol is now a Category 4 typhoon. AndrewTalk To Me 12:28, June 16, 2012 (UTC) :::::Yeah - its eye has gotten its way and has shown up on infrared as it was strengthening, and now it continues to strengthen. Japan, watch out! --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:42, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Now a powerful Category 4 Super Typhoon. Expected to be a 175 mph Cat. 5! 15:01, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::: this could potentially be our first super typhoon of the season if is not already one right now.Allanjeffs 15:41, June 16, 2012 (UTC) Super Typhoon Guchol Now up to 115 mph (10-min) (or 150 mph 1-min) with a pressure of 935 mb. AndrewTalk To Me 15:57, June 16, 2012 (UTC) :And for the record, Guchol is the strongest storm recorded worldwide since Cyclone Lua back in mid-March. AndrewTalk To Me 16:12, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::It is really bursting out now and has an impressive eye... Eye see Guchol! --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 16:23, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::Now 150 mph and 926 mbar.Cyclone10 17:30, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Because the pressure gradient is much weaker in the Australian region, the 930 mbars from Lua would be typical of your average category 4 hurricane, even though it only peaked as a 110 mph category 2 storm. I think Guchol could deepen down to be as low as 900 mbars. Ryan1000 22:39, June 16, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::I heard from JasonRees from WPTC that the JMA reckons that it has peaked... and a EWRC is to blame. Based off of MIMIC imagery, it appears that an EWRC is occuring and we may not see a category 5 typhoon. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 00:32, June 17, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::Currently Guchol is forecast to power down a little (145 mph), then reach a secondary peak of 150 mph before weakening to a category 2 (or more likely, cat 1) storm by the time it reaches Tokyo. Cat 5 is still not out of the question, but it may instead peak as a strong cat 4, where it is now. Pressure increased to 935 mbars. Ryan1000 05:22, June 17, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::::Guchol is going through an another ERC.Cyclone10 23:15, June 17, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::::Is still a super typhoon? because i doubt it.Allanjeffs 01:30, June 18, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Guchol (2nd time) Well, not anymore, since it has to have 150+ mph winds for it to (unofficially) be called that. Ryan1000 01:39, June 18, 2012 (UTC) : It's expected to strike dead on with Kyoto with 55 kt winds. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:14, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :::Starting to become extratropical.Cyclone10 21:13, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yeah.... but it'll be slower than Mawar at becoming extratropical... it still has its characteristics. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 22:47, June 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Guchol (2nd time) Guchol has made landfall in Japan....--Cyclone10 14:44, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Extratropical Cyclone Guchol ...and has become extratropical.--Cyclone10 14:44, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :Yeah... probably causing some heavy rainfall and some wind damage. Here's Japan radar showing Guchol which is currently speeding off. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:56, June 19, 2012 (UTC) ::JMA says Guchol is still tropical.--Cyclone10 20:25, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :::Officially gone.--Cyclone10 04:11, June 20, 2012 (UTC) 91W.INVEST While everyone's keeping an eye on Guchol, a new invest has appeared. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:20, June 15, 2012 (UTC) : Out. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:15, June 18, 2012 (UTC) 06W.TALIM 92W.INVEST This one too.Cyclone10 13:17, June 16, 2012 (UTC) :: TCFA!Cyclone10 15:26, June 17, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Talim Now a TS according to JMA.--Cyclone10 19:48, June 17, 2012 (UTC) That was fast! AndrewTalk To Me 00:30, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :JTWC says that Talim is a TD.Cyclone10 00:48, June 18, 2012 (UTC ::They will likely upgrade it in the next advisory.Allanjeffs 01:29, June 18, 2012 (UTC) :::Being in the northern South China Sea now, I expect Talim to head east-northeast and pass between Taiwan and China before hitting Japan. It may become a typhoon, but I don't anticipate RI from this one. Ryan1000 01:42, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::I had a feeling this was going to form quickly... it was an organized invest. I also don't expect RI. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 15:17, June 18, 2012 (UTC) ::::::For the moment this is pretty elongated, but sooner or later it should start to ramp up a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:18, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Talim Getting stronger...--Cyclone10 14:47, June 19, 2012 (UTC) :Yeah... its starting to roll up. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:50, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Talim (2nd time) Back to a TS.--Cyclone10 04:12, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :Well its right over Taiwan right now. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 13:10, June 20, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Talim JMA doesn't think Talim made it through Taiwan.--Cyclone10 19:54, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :It got torn apart into bits and shreds. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 19:56, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :::It's pretty much dead. I expected it to eventually reach Japan, but that never panned out. Ryan1000 20:16, June 20, 2012 (UTC) :::Agree.Allanjeffs 22:14, June 20, 2012 (UTC) 93W.INVEST New one.--Cyclone10 20:12, June 19, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. *Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created. **Ambo - 5% - Probably not. *Guchol - ? **Butchoy - 0% - Didn't/barely affect(ed) the Philippines. *Talim - ? Cyclone10 19:53, June 17, 2012 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: JMA: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. #Sanvu - 0% - No. #Mawar - 1% - I doubt it. #Guchol - TBA - Still Active #Talim - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse. #Butchoy - 0% - Had no effects. --AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC)